Club America 2–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Club America

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

H. Martín 90+2'

O. Peralta 32'

C. González 73'

F. Mora 1'

8/26/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Club America43%

×Draw27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.07

Club America

1.33

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.07

Club America creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.53

creates per match

1.21

0.93

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Club America

1.53

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

allows per match

Club America

0.93

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.14

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Club America-0.08on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Club America or draw

70%

Club America or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

73%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

57%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

20%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

74%

Club America 2+ goals

38%

Club America 3+ goals

15%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

66%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

59%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 11 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.53 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Club America defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Club America scores more

43%

level

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

30%

Club America at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

K. Escamilla

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · M

7.5

Match Events

1'

F. Mora↳ M. Rodríguez

32'

O. Peralta↳ P. Aguilar

39'

Roger Martinez

39'

Alejandro Arribas

62'

M. Alustiza← A. Mendoza

64'

Felipe Mora

65'

M. Uribe← C. Domínguez

68'

Bruno Valdez

71'

Jorge Sánchez

71'

J. Sánchez← O. Peralta

73'

C. González↳ M. Rodríguez

75'

Alan Mozo

78'

H. Martín← R. Reyes

78'

J. Iturbe← C. González

90+1'

P. Jaquez← Alejandro Arribas

90+2'

H. Martín↳ A. Ibargüen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubU.N.A.M.

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots17

7Corners4

7Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots17

2On Target5

8Off Target6

3Blocked6

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box12

Passing

50%Possession50%

317Total Passes297

242Accurate Passes242

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards0