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Club America vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026

Club America
Club America
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Toluca
Toluca
3/1/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Club America53%
×Draw24%
Toluca24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club America
1.71
Toluca
1.06

Club America creates 61% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 149 away

creates per match

Club America
1.89
Toluca
1.24

allows per match

Club America
0.89
Toluca
1.53

finishing

Club America+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Club America or draw
76%
Club America or Toluca
76%
Draw or Toluca
47%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+
29%
Toluca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals
82%
Club America 2+ goals
51%
Club America 3+ goals
24%
Toluca 1+ goals
65%
Toluca 2+ goals
29%
Toluca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)
69%
Toluca (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 160 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.89 + Toluca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Toluca attack 1.24 + Club America defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Club America scores more
53%
level
24%
Toluca scores more
24%

Club America at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Club America 3–0 Toluca

Club America beat Toluca 3-0 in Liga MX on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes in D.F..