Club America 5–1 Toluca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club America

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Toluca

J. Quiñones 82', 73'

D. Valdés 24', 9'

H. Martín 15'

J. Domínguez 14'

4/14/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Club America53%

×Draw24%

Toluca24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchToluca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.06

Club America

1.71

Toluca

1.06

Club America creates 61% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 149 away

1.89

creates per match

1.24

0.89

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Club America

1.89

Toluca

1.24

allows per match

Club America

0.89

Toluca

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club America+0.00on par

Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Toluca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Club America or draw

76%

Club America or Toluca

76%

Draw or Toluca

47%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

29%

Toluca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

82%

Club America 2+ goals

51%

Club America 3+ goals

24%

Toluca 1+ goals

65%

Toluca 2+ goals

29%

Toluca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

69%

Toluca (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 160 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.89 + Toluca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Toluca attack 1.24 + Club America defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Club America scores more

53%

level

24%

Toluca scores more

24%

Club America at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Valdés

Club America · M

9.2

Match Events

9'

D. Valdés↳ H. Martín

14'

J. Domínguez↳ A. Vega

15'

H. Martín↳ D. Valdés

19'

Cristian Calderón

24'

D. Valdés↳ Álvaro Fidalgo

27'

Diego ValdésGoal confirmed

49'

Juan Escobar

50'

Igor Lichnovsky

58'

M. Araújo← C. Orrantía

58'

R. Morales← J. Domínguez

58'

I. López← J. Angulo

65'

J. Quiñones← J. Dilrosun

66'

R. Juárez← I. Lichnovsky

73'

J. Quiñones

77'

R. Sánchez← D. Valdés

78'

B. Rodríguez← H. Martín

80'

T. Belmonte← C. Baeza

82'

J. Quiñones↳ B. Rodríguez

85'

S. Naveda← J. dos Santos

90+2'

Julián Quiñones

90+2'

Álvaro Fidalgo

90+1'

Brian RodríguezGoal cancelled

90+2'

Marcel Ruíz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubToluca

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots12

3Corners8

11Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots12

9On Target6

6Off Target5

0Blocked1

13Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

372Total Passes496

318Accurate Passes425

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1