Club America 4–3 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Club America

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Santos Laguna

10/22/2023

Liga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club America46%

×Draw23%

Santos Laguna31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.40

Club America

1.77

Santos Laguna

1.40

Club America creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

1.86

0.93

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Club America

1.53

Santos Laguna

1.86

allows per match

Club America

0.93

Santos Laguna

2.00

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Club America-0.08on par

Santos Laguna-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Club America or draw

69%

Club America or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

54%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

25%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

83%

Club America 2+ goals

53%

Club America 3+ goals

26%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

75%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

41%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

60%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 11 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.53 + Santos Laguna defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Santos Laguna attack 1.86 + Club America defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Club America scores more

46%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

31%

Club America at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff