Club America 3–3 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Club America

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Santos Laguna

F. Viñas 90+7'

H. Rodríguez 87' (OG)

H. Martín 9'

H. Preciado 64'

L. Suárez 17', 8'

9/15/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Club America48%

×Draw24%

Santos Laguna28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.27

Club America

1.74

Santos Laguna

1.27

Club America creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.53

creates per match

1.61

0.93

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Club America

1.53

Santos Laguna

1.61

allows per match

Club America

0.93

Santos Laguna

1.95

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Club America-0.08on par

Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Club America or draw

72%

Club America or Santos Laguna

76%

Draw or Santos Laguna

52%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

26%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

82%

Club America 2+ goals

52%

Club America 3+ goals

25%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

72%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

36%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

63%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 11 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.53 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + Club America defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club America scores more

48%

level

24%

Santos Laguna scores more

28%

Club America at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Suárez

Santos Laguna · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

L. Suárez↳ E. Orrantía

9'

H. Martín

17'

L. Suárez↳ J. Brunetta

23'

Harold Preciado

24'

Hugo Rodríguez

53'

S. Reyes← L. Fuentes

58'

J. Correa← E. Aguirre

64'

H. Preciado

66'

B. Rodríguez← J. Rodríguez

66'

Roger Martínez← D. Valdés

70'

D. Medina← H. Preciado

70'

J. Lozano← L. Suárez

74'

Omar Campos

79'

A. López← J. Brunetta

79'

C. Domínguez← O. Campos

81'

P. Aquino← R. Sánchez

81'

F. Viñas← A. Zendejas

87'

H. RodríguezOwn goal

90+9'

Cecilio Domínguez

90+3'

Fernando Gorriarán

90+1'

Javier Correa

90+7'

F. Viñas↳ Álvaro Fidalgo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubSantos

Overview

71%Possession29%

29Total Shots13

11Corners2

4Fouls15

Shots

29Total Shots13

8On Target8

8Off Target3

13Blocked2

19Inside Box7

10Outside Box6

Passing

71%Possession29%

536Total Passes232

463Accurate Passes168

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

4Fouls15

0Yellow Cards6