Club America 1–2 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Club America

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Santos Laguna

A. Ibargüen 40'

B. Lozano 71' (pen)

D. Valdés 67'

11/3/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Club America48%

×Draw24%

Santos Laguna28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.27

Club America

1.74

Santos Laguna

1.27

Club America creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.53

creates per match

1.61

0.93

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Club America

1.53

Santos Laguna

1.61

allows per match

Club America

0.93

Santos Laguna

1.95

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Club America-0.08on par

Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Club America or draw

72%

Club America or Santos Laguna

76%

Draw or Santos Laguna

52%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

26%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

82%

Club America 2+ goals

52%

Club America 3+ goals

25%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

72%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

36%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

63%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 11 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.53 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + Club America defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club America scores more

48%

level

24%

Santos Laguna scores more

28%

Club America at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Valdés

Santos Laguna · F

7.7

Match Events

28'

Paul Aguilar

40'

A. Ibargüen↳ Roger Martínez

53'

Dória

67'

D. Valdés↳ E. Castillo

69'

O. Rivero← J. Furch

71'

B. LozanoPenalty

73'

N. Castillo← A. Ibargüen

75'

77'

77'

77'

81'

81'

G. dos Santos← F. Córdova

82'

D. De Buen← E. Games

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubSantos

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots15

5Corners2

17Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots15

5On Target4

8Off Target7

4Blocked4

11Inside Box5

6Outside Box10

Passing

54%Possession46%

347Total Passes290

262Accurate Passes200

76%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2