Club America 2–1 Monterrey: Result & Stats

Club America

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Monterrey

F. Viñas 79'

D. Valdés 36'

M. Meza 19'

4/9/2023

Liga MX · Clausura - 14Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club America51%

×Draw25%

Monterrey24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.05

Club America

1.65

Monterrey

1.05

Club America creates 57% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

1.17

0.93

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Club America

1.53

Monterrey

1.17

allows per match

Club America

0.93

Monterrey

1.76

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Club America-0.08on par

Monterrey-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Club America or draw

76%

Club America or Monterrey

75%

Draw or Monterrey

49%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

27%

Monterrey wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

81%

Club America 2+ goals

49%

Club America 3+ goals

23%

Monterrey 1+ goals

65%

Monterrey 2+ goals

28%

Monterrey 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

68%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 11 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.53 + Monterrey defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Monterrey attack 1.17 + Club America defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Club America scores more

51%

level

25%

Monterrey scores more

24%

Club America at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Valdés

Club America · F

7.9

Match Events

19'

27'

35'

35'

36'

57'

57'

65'

72'

L. Suárez← A. Zendejas

72'

B. Rodríguez← Jonathan Rodríguez

72'

J. Cortizo← A. González

72'

D. Vergara← R. Funes Mori

77'

F. Viñas← H. Martín

79'

F. Viñas↳ D. Valdés

84'

J. Rojas← M. Meza

87'

S. Caceres

90+8'

E. Andrada

90+3'

N. Araújo← D. Valdés

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubMonterrey

Overview

62%Possession38%

8Total Shots9

6Corners4

10Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots9

5On Target4

2Off Target4

1Blocked1

6Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

529Total Passes325

453Accurate Passes248

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1