Club America 3–0 Monterrey: Result & Stats

Club America

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Monterrey

A. Ibargüen 85' (pen)

B. Valdez 50'

R. Martínez 23'

8/12/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club America51%

×Draw25%

Monterrey24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.05

Club America

1.65

Monterrey

1.05

Club America creates 57% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

1.17

0.93

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Club America

1.53

Monterrey

1.17

allows per match

Club America

0.93

Monterrey

1.76

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Club America-0.08on par

Monterrey-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Club America or draw

76%

Club America or Monterrey

75%

Draw or Monterrey

49%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

27%

Monterrey wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

81%

Club America 2+ goals

49%

Club America 3+ goals

23%

Monterrey 1+ goals

65%

Monterrey 2+ goals

28%

Monterrey 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

68%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 11 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.53 + Monterrey defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Monterrey attack 1.17 + Club America defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Club America scores more

51%

level

25%

Monterrey scores more

24%

Club America at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Ibargüen

Club America · M

8.1

Match Events

19'

Stefan Medina

23'

R. Martínez↳ M. Uribe

30'

30'

40'

50'

57'

D. Pabón← J. Urretaviscaya

57'

G. Madrigal← L. Vangioni

59'

C. Vargas← R. Reyes

69'

J. Corona← O. Peralta

69'

A. Ibarra← M. Uribe

83'

Marcelo Barovero

85'

A. IbargüenPenalty

89'

Carlos Vargas

90'

José Basanta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubMonterrey

Overview

47%Possession53%

18Total Shots5

4Corners5

15Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots5

11On Target2

5Off Target3

2Blocked0

12Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

320Total Passes347

263Accurate Passes281

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2