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Club America vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Club America
Club America
Preview
23:00
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
10/25/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Banorte
48%
Club America
model favours
48%27%25%

CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Club America48%
×Draw27%
CF Pachuca25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club America
1.42
CF Pachuca
0.94

Club America creates 51% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Club America
1.63
CF Pachuca
0.99

allows per match

Club America
0.88
CF Pachuca
1.22

finishing

Club America-0.03on par
CF Pachuca+0.18scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Club America or draw
75%
Club America or CF Pachuca
73%
Draw or CF Pachuca
52%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+
24%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals
76%
Club America 2+ goals
41%
Club America 3+ goals
17%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
61%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
24%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)
66%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 10 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.63 + CF Pachuca defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

CF Pachuca attack 0.99 + Club America defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club America scores more
48%
level
27%
CF Pachuca scores more
25%

Club America at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Club America score first in only 25% of matches
  • Club America win just 33% against the top half (vs 60% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Club America play Attack-heavy, CF Pachuca Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Club America
Attack-heavy
CF Pachuca
Defensively solid
58%Possession51%
87%Pass accuracy83%
15.5Shots15.5
1.51xGBiggest gap1.15
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Club AmericaCF Pachuca

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
America
LWDDL
Pachuca
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Club America face CF Pachuca (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Club America hosting CF Pachuca. Match starts October 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Club America host CF Pachuca at Estadio Banorte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.