Club America 2–1 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats

Club America

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CF Pachuca

11/7/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Club America44%

×Draw28%

CF Pachuca28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.97

Club America

1.31

CF Pachuca

0.97

Club America creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.53

creates per match

1.01

0.93

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Club America

1.53

CF Pachuca

1.01

allows per match

Club America

0.93

CF Pachuca

1.10

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

Club America-0.08on par

CF Pachuca+0.66scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Club America or draw

72%

Club America or CF Pachuca

72%

Draw or CF Pachuca

56%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

20%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

73%

Club America 2+ goals

38%

Club America 3+ goals

14%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

62%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

25%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

62%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 11 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.10 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.53 + CF Pachuca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

CF Pachuca attack 1.01 + Club America defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Club America scores more

44%

level

28%

CF Pachuca scores more

28%

Club America at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff