Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Club Africain vs US BEN Guerdane — Cup 2019

Club Africain
Club Africainadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
US BEN Guerdane
US BEN Guerdane
S. Khalifa 3'
6/17/2017CupCup · FinalStade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Club Africain67%
×Draw21%
US BEN Guerdane12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Africain
1.92
US BEN Guerdane
0.67

Club Africain creates 187% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Club Africain
2.33
US BEN Guerdane
1.00

allows per match

Club Africain
0.33
US BEN Guerdane
1.50

finishing

Club Africain+0.00on par
US BEN Guerdane+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Africain ↓

US BEN Guerdane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Club Africain or draw
88%
Club Africain or US BEN Guerdane
79%
Draw or US BEN Guerdane
33%

Winning margin

Club Africain wins by 2+
41%
US BEN Guerdane wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Club Africain 1+ goals
85%
Club Africain 2+ goals
57%
Club Africain 3+ goals
30%
US BEN Guerdane 1+ goals
49%
US BEN Guerdane 2+ goals
15%
US BEN Guerdane 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Club Africain (draw refunded)
85%
US BEN Guerdane (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Africain at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

US BEN Guerdane away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Africain attack 2.33 + US BEN Guerdane defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

US BEN Guerdane attack 1.00 + Club Africain defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Club Africain scores more
67%
level
21%
US BEN Guerdane scores more
12%

Club Africain at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Club Africain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
S. Khalifa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Club Africain 1 – 0 US BEN Guerdane

Club Africain beat US BEN Guerdane 1-0 in Cup on June 17, 2017.

Goals: S. Khalifa (3').

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès in Radès.