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Cliftonville W vs Crusaders W — Premiership Women 2026

Cliftonville W
Cliftonville W
Preview
19:00
Crusaders W
Crusaders W
7/31/2026Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Group Stage
Big match
72%
Cliftonville W
model favours
72%14%14%

Both sides lean high-scoring (93% and 100% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

3–1
likely score
84%
over 2.5 goals
73%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cliftonville W72%
×Draw14%
Crusaders W14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cliftonville W
3.27
Crusaders W
1.43

Cliftonville W creates 129% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cliftonville W
4.09
Crusaders W
1.77

allows per match

Cliftonville W
1.09
Crusaders W
2.46

finishing

Cliftonville W+0.00on par
Crusaders W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cliftonville W ↓

Crusaders W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Cliftonville W or draw
86%
Cliftonville W or Crusaders W
86%
Draw or Crusaders W
28%

Winning margin

Cliftonville W wins by 2+
53%
Crusaders W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cliftonville W 1+ goals
96%
Cliftonville W 2+ goals
83%
Cliftonville W 3+ goals
62%
Crusaders W 1+ goals
76%
Crusaders W 2+ goals
42%
Crusaders W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cliftonville W (draw refunded)
84%
Crusaders W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cliftonville W at home — creates 4.09, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Crusaders W away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cliftonville W attack 4.09 + Crusaders W defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 3.27

Crusaders W attack 1.77 + Cliftonville W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Cliftonville W scores more
72%
level
14%
Crusaders W scores more
14%

Cliftonville W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Cliftonville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 100% of Crusaders W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 93% of Cliftonville W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Cliftonville W have scored in 14 games running
  • Crusaders W score first in only 20% of matches
  • Cliftonville W score first in only 29% of matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Cliftonville W 3 vs Crusaders W 1

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LWWLD
W
DLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cliftonville W vs Crusaders W — Match Preview

Cliftonville W face Crusaders W on July 31, 2026 in this Premiership Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.