Cliftonville FC 1–3 Glenavon FC: Result & Stats

Cliftonville FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Glenavon FC

J. Gormley 70'

A. Mitchell 74', 68'

A. McGrory 66' (pen)

4/14/2018

League #408 · Championship Round - 3Solitude

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cliftonville FC61%

×Draw21%

Glenavon FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cliftonville FCExpected goals in this matchGlenavon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.02

Cliftonville FC

2.04

Glenavon FC

1.02

Cliftonville FC creates 100% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 58 away

2.07

creates per match

1.10

0.93

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Cliftonville FC

2.07

Glenavon FC

1.10

allows per match

Cliftonville FC

0.93

Glenavon FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cliftonville FC+0.00on par

Glenavon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cliftonville FC ↓

Glenavon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Cliftonville FC or draw

82%

Cliftonville FC or Glenavon FC

79%

Draw or Glenavon FC

39%

Winning margin

Cliftonville FC wins by 2+

37%

Glenavon FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cliftonville FC 1+ goals

87%

Cliftonville FC 2+ goals

60%

Cliftonville FC 3+ goals

33%

Glenavon FC 1+ goals

64%

Glenavon FC 2+ goals

27%

Glenavon FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cliftonville FC (draw refunded)

77%

Glenavon FC (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cliftonville FC at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Glenavon FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cliftonville FC attack 2.07 + Glenavon FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Glenavon FC attack 1.10 + Cliftonville FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cliftonville FC scores more

61%

level

21%

Glenavon FC scores more

18%

Cliftonville FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cliftonville FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

S. Murray← M. Griffin

66'

A. McGroryPenalty

68'

A. Mitchell

70'

J. Gormley

74'

A. Mitchell

78'

S. Garrett← C. McDonald

83'

J. Daniels← A. McGrory

85'

J. Winchester← R. Harkin

90'

C. Marron← S. Kelly

Cliftonville

Glenavon

1

Tuffey

4

▼

8

5

3

17

⚽

▼

McGrory

23

Cooper

14

Sykes

10

▼

Griffin

9

⚽2

22

13

26

2

6

3

8

▼

Harkin

7

Curran

28

▼

McDonald

77

Donnelly

19

⚽

Gormley

21

Donnelly

Manager: B. Gray

78'▲S. Garrett←▼C. McDonald

85'▲J. Winchester←▼R. Harkin

Cliftonville FC substitutes

10Garrett18Winchester20Dunne22Lavery23Cosgrove

Manager: G. Hamilton

51'▲S. Murray←▼M. Griffin

83'▲J. Daniels←▼A. McGrory

90'▲C. Marron←▼S. Kelly

Glenavon FC substitutes

24Murray7Daniels15Marron6Foley21O'Mahony