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Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne City — A-League 2014

Western Sydney Wanderers
Western Sydney Wanderers
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
N. Rukavytsya 90+1'
T. Jurić 79' (pen)
M. Poljak 38'
A. Mooy 71'
S. Baharudin 28'
3/11/2015A-LeagueA-League · Round 10Pirtek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers39%
×Draw24%
Melbourne City37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers
1.52
Melbourne City
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 109 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers
1.57
Melbourne City
1.56

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers
1.42
Melbourne City
1.47

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers or draw
63%
Western Sydney Wanderers or Melbourne City
76%
Draw or Melbourne City
61%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+
19%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals
78%
Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals
45%
Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals
20%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
77%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
44%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)
51%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 108 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.47 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.57 + Melbourne City defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Melbourne City attack 1.56 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more
39%
level
24%
Melbourne City scores more
37%

Western Sydney Wanderers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
Jonathan Aspropotamitis
28'
S. Baharudin
32'
Nikolai Topor-Stanley
38'
M. Poljak
46'
J. Trifiro← M. Poljak
59'
D. Williams← M. Dugandzic
66'
J. Brown← H. Novillo
71'
A. Mooy
74'
J. Sotirio← N. Kalmar
79'
T. JurićPenalty
82'
Connor Chapman
85'
J. Clisby← R. Koren
87'
Antony Golec
90'
Nikita Rukavytsya
90+6'
S. Gallaway← J. Trifiro
90+1'
N. Rukavytsya

Possession

52%Western

Statistics

WesternMelbourne
Overview
52%Possession48%
3Corners4
19Fouls15
Shots
7On Target6
3Off Target4
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls15
4Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
4Offsides4

Match Recap: Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne City

Western Sydney Wanderers beat Melbourne City 3-2 in A-League on March 11, 2015.

Goals: S. Baharudin (28'), M. Poljak (38'), A. Mooy (71'), T. Jurić (79' pen), N. Rukavytsya (90+1').

Western Sydney Wanderers dominated possession with 52% of the ball.

The match was played at Pirtek Stadium in Parramatta.