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Parvoz vs CSKA Pomir — Vysshaya Liga 2014

Parvoz
Parvoz
FT
2 – 1
CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
6/21/2014Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 9Stadion Furudgokh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Parvoz25%
×Draw24%
CSKA Pomir51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parvoz
1.11
CSKA Pomir
1.68

CSKA Pomir creates 51% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

Parvoz
1.19
CSKA Pomir
1.17

allows per match

Parvoz
2.19
CSKA Pomir
1.04

finishing

Parvoz+0.00on par
CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parvoz ↓

CSKA Pomir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Parvoz or draw
49%
Parvoz or CSKA Pomir
76%
Draw or CSKA Pomir
75%

Winning margin

Parvoz wins by 2+
10%
CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Parvoz 1+ goals
67%
Parvoz 2+ goals
30%
Parvoz 3+ goals
10%
CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
81%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
50%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Parvoz (draw refunded)
33%
CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parvoz at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.19 · 21 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parvoz attack 1.19 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

CSKA Pomir attack 1.17 + Parvoz defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Parvoz scores more
25%
level
24%
CSKA Pomir scores more
51%

CSKA Pomir at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Parvoz 2–1 CSKA Pomir

Parvoz beat CSKA Pomir 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on June 21, 2014.

The match was played at Stadion Furudgokh in Ghafurov.