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Kuktosh vs Istiqlol — Vysshaya Liga 2018

Kuktosh
Kuktosh
FT
0 – 2
Istiqlol
Istiqlol
6/3/2018Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 11Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kuktosh15%
×Draw21%
Istiqlol64%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuktosh
0.85
Istiqlol
2.02

Istiqlol creates 138% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 40 away

creates per match

Kuktosh
1.00
Istiqlol
2.23

allows per match

Kuktosh
1.80
Istiqlol
0.70

finishing

Kuktosh+0.00on par
Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuktosh ↓

Istiqlol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kuktosh or draw
36%
Kuktosh or Istiqlol
79%
Draw or Istiqlol
85%

Winning margin

Kuktosh wins by 2+
5%
Istiqlol wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Kuktosh 1+ goals
57%
Kuktosh 2+ goals
21%
Kuktosh 3+ goals
5%
Istiqlol 1+ goals
87%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
60%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Kuktosh (draw refunded)
19%
Istiqlol (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuktosh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuktosh attack 1.00 + Istiqlol defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Istiqlol attack 2.23 + Kuktosh defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kuktosh scores more
15%
level
21%
Istiqlol scores more
64%

Istiqlol at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Kuktosh 0–2 Istiqlol

Istiqlol beat Kuktosh 2-0 in Vysshaya Liga on June 3, 2018.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze in Dushanbe.