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Khatlon vs Regar-TadAZ — Vysshaya Liga 2018

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
2 – 0
Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
5/13/2018Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 8Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Khatlon40%
×Draw29%
Regar-TadAZ32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
1.21
Regar-TadAZ
1.05

Khatlon creates 15% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 43 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.41
Regar-TadAZ
1.16

allows per match

Khatlon
0.95
Regar-TadAZ
1.02

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Regar-TadAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
68%
Khatlon or Regar-TadAZ
71%
Draw or Regar-TadAZ
60%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
17%
Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
70%
Khatlon 2+ goals
34%
Khatlon 3+ goals
12%
Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
65%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
28%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
56%
Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.41 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.16 + Khatlon defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khatlon scores more
40%
level
29%
Regar-TadAZ scores more
32%

Khatlon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khatlon vs Regar-TadAZ

Khatlon beat Regar-TadAZ 2-0 in Vysshaya Liga on May 13, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.