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FC Copenhagen vs Odense — Superliga 2026

FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Odense
Odense
A. Cornelius 90'
L. Augustinsson 87'
9/10/2016SuperligaSuperliga · Round 8Telia Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

FC Copenhagen56%
×Draw22%
Odense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Copenhagen
2.01
Odense
1.21

FC Copenhagen creates 66% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

FC Copenhagen
2.21
Odense
1.28

allows per match

FC Copenhagen
1.15
Odense
1.81

finishing

FC Copenhagen-0.15scores less
Odense-0.06on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

Odense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw
77%
FC Copenhagen or Odense
78%
Draw or Odense
44%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
33%
Odense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
87%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
59%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
32%
Odense 1+ goals
70%
Odense 2+ goals
34%
Odense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
71%
Odense (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.15 · 18 matches

Odense away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.81 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.21 + Odense defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.01

Odense attack 1.28 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more
56%
level
22%
Odense scores more
23%

FC Copenhagen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
F. Tingager← K. Petersen
60'
R. Jönsson← A. Jacobsen
63'
F. Santander← A. Pavlović
63'
R. Falk← Y. Toutouh
73'
Joan Edmundsson
75'
D. Amankwaa← B. Verbič
78'
Izunna Uzochukwu
79'
M. Greve← J. Edmundsson
81'
Zanka
87'
L. Augustinsson
90'
A. Cornelius

Possession

54%FC

Shots

17FC

Statistics

FCOdense
Overview
54%Possession46%
17Total Shots6
8Corners3
11Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots6
9On Target2
8Off Target4
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: FC Copenhagen vs Odense

FC Copenhagen beat Odense 2-0 in Superliga on September 10, 2016.

Goals: L. Augustinsson (87'), A. Cornelius (90').

FC Copenhagen controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Telia Parken in København.