FC Midtjylland 2–0 Viborg: Result & Stats

FC Midtjylland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Viborg

P. Sisto 86', 24'

7/18/2015

Superliga · Round 1MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

FC Midtjylland41%

×Draw23%

Viborg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchViborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.54

FC Midtjylland

1.65

Viborg

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.74

creates per match

1.79

1.30

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

1.74

Viborg

1.79

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.30

Viborg

1.55

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.63scores more

Viborg-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Viborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

64%

FC Midtjylland or Viborg

77%

Draw or Viborg

59%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

21%

Viborg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

81%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

49%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

23%

Viborg 1+ goals

79%

Viborg 2+ goals

45%

Viborg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

53%

Viborg (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 19 matches

Viborg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.55 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 1.74 + Viborg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.65

Viborg attack 1.79 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

41%

level

23%

Viborg scores more

36%

FC Midtjylland at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

P. Sisto

45'

Kristoffer Pallesen

51'

Petter Andersson

66'

M. Rasmussen← M. Pusic

66'

C. Sivebæk← S. Andersen

71'

K. Olsson← D. Royer

72'

A. Gero← M. Wichmann

83'

M. Larsen← P. Andersson

86'

P. Sisto

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCViborg

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots6

4Corners2

16Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots6

3On Target1

8Off Target5

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2