Silkeborg 1–2 Viborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Silkeborg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Viborg

R. Skov 29'

M. Vestergaard 84'

S. Frederiksen 4'

4/21/2017

Superliga · Relegation Round - 4MASCOT PARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Silkeborg35%

×Draw23%

Viborg41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SilkeborgExpected goals in this matchViborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.68

Silkeborg

1.54

Viborg

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

1.54

creates per match

1.79

1.57

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Silkeborg

1.54

Viborg

1.79

allows per match

Silkeborg

1.57

Viborg

1.55

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Silkeborg-0.14scores less

Viborg-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silkeborg ↓

Viborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Silkeborg or draw

59%

Silkeborg or Viborg

77%

Draw or Viborg

65%

Winning margin

Silkeborg wins by 2+

17%

Viborg wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Silkeborg 1+ goals

79%

Silkeborg 2+ goals

45%

Silkeborg 3+ goals

20%

Viborg 1+ goals

81%

Viborg 2+ goals

50%

Viborg 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Silkeborg (draw refunded)

46%

Viborg (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silkeborg at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.57 · 25 matches

Viborg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.55 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silkeborg attack 1.54 + Viborg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Viborg attack 1.79 + Silkeborg defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Silkeborg scores more

35%

level

23%

Viborg scores more

41%

Viborg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Viborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

S. Frederiksen

29'

R. Skov

62'

M. Vatsadze← J. Curth

65'

Sammy Skytte

70'

M. Vendelbo← D. Skhirtladze

75'

M. Vestergaard← S. Deblé

81'

N. Agger← E. Scheel

82'

O. Akharraz← J. Thorsen

84'

M. Vestergaard

85'

A. Albers← S. Skytte

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SilkeborgViborg

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots12

4Corners10

13Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target5

5Off Target7

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0