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Clan Juvenil vs Puerto Quito — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Clan Juvenil
Clan Juvenil
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Puerto Quito
Puerto Quito
8/4/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 25Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Clan Juvenil34%
×Draw29%
Puerto Quito36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clan Juvenil
1.08
Puerto Quito
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 85 away

creates per match

Clan Juvenil
0.80
Puerto Quito
0.76

allows per match

Clan Juvenil
1.48
Puerto Quito
1.36

finishing

Clan Juvenil+0.00on par
Puerto Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clan Juvenil ↓

Puerto Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Clan Juvenil or draw
64%
Clan Juvenil or Puerto Quito
71%
Draw or Puerto Quito
66%

Winning margin

Clan Juvenil wins by 2+
14%
Puerto Quito wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Clan Juvenil 1+ goals
66%
Clan Juvenil 2+ goals
29%
Clan Juvenil 3+ goals
10%
Puerto Quito 1+ goals
67%
Puerto Quito 2+ goals
31%
Puerto Quito 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Clan Juvenil (draw refunded)
49%
Puerto Quito (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clan Juvenil at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.48 · 40 matches

Puerto Quito away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clan Juvenil attack 0.80 + Puerto Quito defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Puerto Quito attack 0.76 + Clan Juvenil defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Clan Juvenil scores more
34%
level
29%
Puerto Quito scores more
36%

Puerto Quito at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Puerto Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Clan Juvenil vs Puerto Quito

Clan Juvenil beat Puerto Quito 3-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí).