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Cjarlins Muzane vs Delta Porto Tolle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
PST
13:00
Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
5/3/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 38Stadio Via Rizzolo (Carlino)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane41%
×Draw27%
Delta Porto Tolle33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
Delta Porto Tolle
1.19

Cjarlins Muzane creates 15% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 30 away

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
Delta Porto Tolle
1.13

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.26
Delta Porto Tolle
1.37

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par
Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw
67%
Cjarlins Muzane or Delta Porto Tolle
73%
Draw or Delta Porto Tolle
59%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
19%
Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
75%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
40%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
16%
Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
70%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
33%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
56%
Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more
41%
level
27%
Delta Porto Tolle scores more
33%

Cjarlins Muzane at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cjarlins Muzane face Delta Porto Tolle (Serie D - Girone C)

Serie D - Girone C returns with Cjarlins Muzane hosting Delta Porto Tolle. Match starts May 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cjarlins Muzane host Delta Porto Tolle at Stadio Via Rizzolo (Carlino).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.