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CIVO United vs Nyasa Big Bullets — Super League 2026

CIVO United
CIVO United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
A. Babatunde Adebare 49'
5/7/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

CIVO United33%
×Draw33%
Nyasa Big Bullets35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CIVO United
0.89
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 72 away

creates per match

CIVO United
1.20
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.26

allows per match

CIVO United
0.59
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.58

finishing

CIVO United+0.00on par
Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CIVO United ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

CIVO United or draw
65%
CIVO United or Nyasa Big Bullets
67%
Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets
67%

Winning margin

CIVO United wins by 2+
11%
Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CIVO United 1+ goals
59%
CIVO United 2+ goals
22%
CIVO United 3+ goals
6%
Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
61%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
24%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CIVO United (draw refunded)
48%
Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CIVO United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.59 · 75 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CIVO United attack 1.20 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.89

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.26 + CIVO United defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

CIVO United scores more
33%
level
33%
Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
35%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
A. Babatunde Adebare
90+4'
R. Chiyenda
90+4'
R. Chiyenda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: CIVO United 0–1 Nyasa Big Bullets

Nyasa Big Bullets beat CIVO United 1-0 in Super League on May 7, 2022.

Goals: A. Babatunde Adebare (49').

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.