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CIVO United vs Chitipa United — Super League 2026

CIVO United
CIVO United
FT
1 – 0
Chitipa United
Chitipa United
C. Kumwembe 80'
7/10/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

CIVO United57%
×Draw28%
Chitipa United15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CIVO United
1.34
Chitipa United
0.54

CIVO United creates 148% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

creates per match

CIVO United
1.20
Chitipa United
0.50

allows per match

CIVO United
0.59
Chitipa United
1.48

finishing

CIVO United+0.00on par
Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CIVO United ↓

Chitipa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

CIVO United or draw
85%
CIVO United or Chitipa United
72%
Draw or Chitipa United
43%

Winning margin

CIVO United wins by 2+
28%
Chitipa United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

CIVO United 1+ goals
74%
CIVO United 2+ goals
39%
CIVO United 3+ goals
15%
Chitipa United 1+ goals
42%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
10%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CIVO United (draw refunded)
79%
Chitipa United (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CIVO United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.59 · 75 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CIVO United attack 1.20 + Chitipa United defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chitipa United attack 0.50 + CIVO United defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CIVO United scores more
57%
level
28%
Chitipa United scores more
15%

CIVO United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
C. Kumwembe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: CIVO United 1–0 Chitipa United

CIVO United beat Chitipa United 1-0 in Super League on July 10, 2021.

Goals: C. Kumwembe (80').

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.