Civil Service Strollers vs Stirling University

Civil Service Strollers

Preview

14:00

Stirling University

9/26/2026

League #731 · Regular Season

51%

Civil Service Strollers

model favours

51%25%24%

Stirling University win just 20% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Civil Service Strollers51%

×Draw25%

Stirling University24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Civil Service StrollersExpected goals in this matchStirling University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.00

Civil Service Strollers

1.57

Stirling University

1.00

Civil Service Strollers creates 57% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 23 away

0.67

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Civil Service Strollers

0.67

Stirling University

1.00

allows per match

Civil Service Strollers

1.00

Stirling University

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Stirling University+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Civil Service Strollers ↓

Stirling University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Civil Service Strollers or draw

76%

Civil Service Strollers or Stirling University

75%

Draw or Stirling University

49%

Winning margin

Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+

26%

Stirling University wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals

79%

Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals

46%

Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals

21%

Stirling University 1+ goals

63%

Stirling University 2+ goals

26%

Stirling University 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)

68%

Stirling University (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Civil Service Strollers at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Stirling University away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Civil Service Strollers attack 0.67 + Stirling University defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.57

Stirling University attack 1.00 + Civil Service Strollers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Civil Service Strollers scores more

51%

level

25%

Stirling University scores more

24%

Civil Service Strollers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Civil Service Strollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Civil Service Strollers sit 12, Stirling University 2 in the table
Civil Service Strollers and Stirling University have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Strollers

DLDL

University

WLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff