Ciudad de Lucena 3–2 Coria CF: Result & Stats

Ciudad de Lucena

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Coria CF

11/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 9Estadio Ciudad de Lucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Ciudad de Lucena62%

×Draw23%

Coria CF16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de LucenaExpected goals in this matchCoria CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.76

Ciudad de Lucena

1.78

Coria CF

0.76

Ciudad de Lucena creates 134% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 95 away

1.89

creates per match

0.95

0.56

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ciudad de Lucena

1.89

Coria CF

0.95

allows per match

Ciudad de Lucena

0.56

Coria CF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Coria CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Lucena ↓

Coria CF →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ciudad de Lucena or draw

84%

Ciudad de Lucena or Coria CF

77%

Draw or Coria CF

38%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

36%

Coria CF wins by 2+

Team goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

83%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

53%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

26%

Coria CF 1+ goals

53%

Coria CF 2+ goals

18%

Coria CF 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

80%

Coria CF (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Lucena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 109 matches

Coria CF away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.89 + Coria CF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Coria CF attack 0.95 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

62%

level

23%

Coria CF scores more

16%

Ciudad de Lucena at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad de Lucena vs Coria CF

Ciudad de Lucena beat Coria CF 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lucena in Lucena.

Ciudad de Lucena vs Coria CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ciudad de Lucena vs Coria CF