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Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo — Primera Nacional 2026

Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
Preview
20:00
San Telmo
San Telmo
10/10/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 33Estadio Municipal Eva Peron
39%
Ciudad de Bolívar
model favours
39%31%30%

San Telmo score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar39%
×Draw31%
San Telmo30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.06
San Telmo
0.88

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 29 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
San Telmo
0.66

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
San Telmo
1.03

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par
San Telmo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

San Telmo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw
70%
Ciudad de Bolívar or San Telmo
69%
Draw or San Telmo
61%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
16%
San Telmo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
65%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
29%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
9%
San Telmo 1+ goals
59%
San Telmo 2+ goals
22%
San Telmo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
57%
San Telmo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

San Telmo away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.10 + San Telmo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

San Telmo attack 0.66 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
39%
level
31%
San Telmo scores more
30%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of San Telmo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bolívar
LWLLD
Telmo
LLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo — Match Preview

Ciudad de Bolívar face San Telmo on October 10, 2026 in this Primera Nacional fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ciudad de Bolívar host San Telmo at Estadio Municipal Eva Peron.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.