Ciudad de Bolívar 1–0 Ferro Carril Oeste LP

Ciudad de Bolívar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

5/6/2023

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 9Estadio Municipal Eva Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar55%

×Draw27%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de BolívarExpected goals in this matchFerro Carril Oeste LP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.68

Ciudad de Bolívar

1.42

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.68

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 109% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 83 away

1.52

creates per match

0.82

0.54

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar

1.52

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.82

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.54

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste LP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw

82%

Ciudad de Bolívar or Ferro Carril Oeste LP

73%

Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste LP

45%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+

28%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals

76%

Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals

41%

Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals

17%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals

49%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals

15%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)

75%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.54 · 80 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.52 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 0.82 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more

55%

level

27%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more

18%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff