Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe — Primera Nacional 2026

Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
Preview
20:00
Colon Santa Fe
Colon Santa Fe
10/24/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 35Estadio Municipal Eva Peron
42%
Ciudad de Bolívar
model favours
42%29%29%

Colon Santa Fe score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar42%
×Draw29%
Colon Santa Fe29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.25
Colon Santa Fe
0.98

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
Colon Santa Fe
0.85

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
Colon Santa Fe
1.41

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par
Colon Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Colon Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw
71%
Ciudad de Bolívar or Colon Santa Fe
71%
Draw or Colon Santa Fe
58%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
19%
Colon Santa Fe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
71%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
36%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
13%
Colon Santa Fe 1+ goals
62%
Colon Santa Fe 2+ goals
26%
Colon Santa Fe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
59%
Colon Santa Fe (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Colon Santa Fe away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.10 + Colon Santa Fe defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Colon Santa Fe attack 0.85 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
42%
level
29%
Colon Santa Fe scores more
29%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Colon Santa Fe’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bolívar
LWLLD
Fe
WWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ciudad de Bolívar host Colon Santa Fe

October 24, 2026: Ciudad de Bolívar take on Colon Santa Fe in Primera Nacional. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ciudad de Bolívar host Colon Santa Fe at Estadio Municipal Eva Peron.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.