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Ciudad de Bolívar vs Chaco For Ever — Primera Nacional 2026

Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
Preview
20:00
Chaco For Ever
Chaco For Ever
9/26/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 31Estadio Municipal Eva Peron
42%
Ciudad de Bolívar
model favours
42%31%27%

69% of Chaco For Ever’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
68%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar42%
×Draw31%
Chaco For Ever27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.13
Chaco For Ever
0.85

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
Chaco For Ever
0.61

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
Chaco For Ever
1.15

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par
Chaco For Ever+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Chaco For Ever →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw
73%
Ciudad de Bolívar or Chaco For Ever
69%
Draw or Chaco For Ever
58%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
18%
Chaco For Ever wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
68%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
31%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
11%
Chaco For Ever 1+ goals
57%
Chaco For Ever 2+ goals
21%
Chaco For Ever 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
61%
Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Chaco For Ever away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.10 + Chaco For Ever defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Chaco For Ever attack 0.61 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
42%
level
31%
Chaco For Ever scores more
27%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ciudad de Bolívar sit 5, Chaco For Ever 18 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bolívar
LWLLD
Ever
WDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Bolívar face Chaco For Ever (Primera Nacional)

Primera Nacional returns with Ciudad de Bolívar hosting Chaco For Ever. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ciudad de Bolívar host Chaco For Ever at Estadio Municipal Eva Peron.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.