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Ciudad de Bolívar vs Central Norte — Primera Nacional 2026

Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
Preview
20:00
Central Norte
Central Norte
9/12/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 29Estadio Municipal Eva Peron
46%
Ciudad de Bolívar
model favours
46%31%23%

Ciudad de Bolívar sit 5, Central Norte 16 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
70%
under 2.5 goals
37%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar46%
×Draw31%
Central Norte23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.18
Central Norte
0.75

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
Central Norte
0.39

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
Central Norte
1.25

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par
Central Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Central Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw
77%
Ciudad de Bolívar or Central Norte
69%
Draw or Central Norte
54%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
20%
Central Norte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
69%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
33%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
12%
Central Norte 1+ goals
53%
Central Norte 2+ goals
17%
Central Norte 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
66%
Central Norte (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Central Norte away — creates 0.39, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.10 + Central Norte defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Central Norte attack 0.39 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
46%
level
31%
Central Norte scores more
23%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Bolívar
LWLLD
Norte
LDWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Bolívar face Central Norte (Primera Nacional)

Primera Nacional returns with Ciudad de Bolívar hosting Central Norte. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ciudad de Bolívar host Central Norte at Estadio Municipal Eva Peron.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.