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Ciudad de Bolívar vs All Boys — Primera Nacional 2026

Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
Preview
23:00
All Boys
All Boys
7/17/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 21Estadio Municipal Eva Peron
44%
Ciudad de Bolívar
model favours
44%30%26%

77% of All Boys’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar44%
×Draw30%
All Boys26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.18
All Boys
0.83

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 42% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
All Boys
0.56

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
All Boys
1.25

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par
All Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

All Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw
74%
Ciudad de Bolívar or All Boys
70%
Draw or All Boys
56%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
19%
All Boys wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
69%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
33%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
12%
All Boys 1+ goals
56%
All Boys 2+ goals
20%
All Boys 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
63%
All Boys (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

All Boys away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.10 + All Boys defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

All Boys attack 0.56 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
44%
level
30%
All Boys scores more
26%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • All Boys score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 31% of All Boys’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bolívar
LWLLD
Boys
DDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Bolívar vs All Boys — Match Preview

Ciudad de Bolívar face All Boys on July 17, 2026 in this Primera Nacional fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ciudad de Bolívar host All Boys at Estadio Municipal Eva Peron.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.