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Cittadella vs Salernitana — Serie B 2018

Cittadella
Cittadella
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Salernitana
Salernitana
12/7/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 15Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Cittadella45%
×Draw28%
Salernitana27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cittadella
1.35
Salernitana
0.97

Cittadella creates 39% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 77 away

creates per match

Cittadella
1.27
Salernitana
0.84

allows per match

Cittadella
1.10
Salernitana
1.43

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par
Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Salernitana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw
73%
Cittadella or Salernitana
72%
Draw or Salernitana
55%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+
21%
Salernitana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals
74%
Cittadella 2+ goals
39%
Cittadella 3+ goals
15%
Salernitana 1+ goals
62%
Salernitana 2+ goals
25%
Salernitana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)
63%
Salernitana (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.43 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Salernitana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Salernitana attack 0.84 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cittadella scores more
45%
level
28%
Salernitana scores more
27%

Cittadella at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cittadella vs Salernitana

Cittadella beat Salernitana 4-3 in Serie B on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Cittadella.