Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Città di Anagni vs Vis Artena — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Città di Anagni
Città di Anagni
PST
14:00
Vis Artena
Vis Artena
3/29/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 29Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Città di Anagni33%
×Draw27%
Vis Artena41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Città di Anagni
1.17
Vis Artena
1.34

Vis Artena creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 47 away

creates per match

Città di Anagni
1.15
Vis Artena
1.06

allows per match

Città di Anagni
1.62
Vis Artena
1.19

finishing

Città di Anagni+0.00on par
Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Città di Anagni ↓

Vis Artena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Città di Anagni or draw
59%
Città di Anagni or Vis Artena
73%
Draw or Vis Artena
67%

Winning margin

Città di Anagni wins by 2+
13%
Vis Artena wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Città di Anagni 1+ goals
69%
Città di Anagni 2+ goals
33%
Città di Anagni 3+ goals
11%
Vis Artena 1+ goals
74%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
39%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Città di Anagni (draw refunded)
44%
Vis Artena (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Città di Anagni at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Città di Anagni attack 1.15 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Città di Anagni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Città di Anagni scores more
33%
level
27%
Vis Artena scores more
41%

Vis Artena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Città di Anagni vs Vis Artena — Match Preview

Città di Anagni face Vis Artena on March 29, 2020 in this Serie D - Girone G fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Città di Anagni host Vis Artena at Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.