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Cirbonero vs Valle Egüés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Cirbonero
Cirbonero
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valle Egüés
Valle Egüés
10/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 8Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Cirbonero47%
×Draw26%
Valle Egüés27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cirbonero
1.48
Valle Egüés
1.06

Cirbonero creates 40% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 90 away

creates per match

Cirbonero
1.59
Valle Egüés
1.27

allows per match

Cirbonero
0.86
Valle Egüés
1.38

finishing

Cirbonero+0.00on par
Valle Egüés+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cirbonero ↓

Valle Egüés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cirbonero or draw
73%
Cirbonero or Valle Egüés
74%
Draw or Valle Egüés
53%

Winning margin

Cirbonero wins by 2+
23%
Valle Egüés wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cirbonero 1+ goals
77%
Cirbonero 2+ goals
43%
Cirbonero 3+ goals
19%
Valle Egüés 1+ goals
65%
Valle Egüés 2+ goals
29%
Valle Egüés 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cirbonero (draw refunded)
63%
Valle Egüés (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cirbonero at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Valle Egüés away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cirbonero attack 1.59 + Valle Egüés defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Valle Egüés attack 1.27 + Cirbonero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cirbonero scores more
47%
level
26%
Valle Egüés scores more
27%

Cirbonero at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cirbonero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Cirbonero 2–0 Valle Egüés

Cirbonero beat Valle Egüés 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan in Cintruénigo.