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Cirbonero vs Beti Kozkor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Cirbonero
Cirbonero
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
3/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 25Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cirbonero52%
×Draw25%
Beti Kozkor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cirbonero
1.57
Beti Kozkor
0.93

Cirbonero creates 69% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 93 away

creates per match

Cirbonero
1.59
Beti Kozkor
1.00

allows per match

Cirbonero
0.86
Beti Kozkor
1.55

finishing

Cirbonero+0.00on par
Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cirbonero ↓

Beti Kozkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cirbonero or draw
78%
Cirbonero or Beti Kozkor
75%
Draw or Beti Kozkor
48%

Winning margin

Cirbonero wins by 2+
27%
Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cirbonero 1+ goals
79%
Cirbonero 2+ goals
46%
Cirbonero 3+ goals
21%
Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
61%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
24%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cirbonero (draw refunded)
70%
Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cirbonero at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Beti Kozkor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cirbonero attack 1.59 + Beti Kozkor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.57

Beti Kozkor attack 1.00 + Cirbonero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cirbonero scores more
52%
level
25%
Beti Kozkor scores more
22%

Cirbonero at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cirbonero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cirbonero vs Beti Kozkor

Cirbonero and Beti Kozkor drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan in Cintruénigo.