Cipolletti 1–1 Sansinena: Result & Stats

Cipolletti

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sansinena

J. Zárate 50'

C. Giménez 49'

9/29/2021

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 25Estadio La Visera de Cemento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Cipolletti49%

×Draw29%

Sansinena22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CipollettiExpected goals in this matchSansinena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.74

Cipolletti

1.28

Sansinena

0.74

Cipolletti creates 73% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 85 away

1.28

creates per match

0.76

0.73

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Cipolletti

1.28

Sansinena

0.76

allows per match

Cipolletti

0.73

Sansinena

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cipolletti+0.00on par

Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cipolletti ↓

Sansinena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cipolletti or draw

78%

Cipolletti or Sansinena

71%

Draw or Sansinena

51%

Winning margin

Cipolletti wins by 2+

23%

Sansinena wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cipolletti 1+ goals

72%

Cipolletti 2+ goals

37%

Cipolletti 3+ goals

14%

Sansinena 1+ goals

52%

Sansinena 2+ goals

17%

Sansinena 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cipolletti (draw refunded)

70%

Sansinena (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cipolletti at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 110 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cipolletti attack 1.28 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Cipolletti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cipolletti scores more

49%

level

29%

Sansinena scores more

22%

Cipolletti at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cipolletti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

50'

67'

67'

79'

F. Amarfil← L. Mellado

79'

J. Amieva← L. Calderón

80'

T. Hernández← B. Toro

80'

A. Delorte← A. Hernández

87'

M. Tormann← G. Bárez

87'

T. Segovia← O. Bianchi

Cipolletti

Sansinena

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: G. Raggio

67'▲N. Agüero←▼M. López

79'▲F. Amarfil←▼L. Mellado

79'▲J. Amieva←▼L. Calderón

Cipolletti substitutes

AgüeroAmarfilAmieva

Manager: E. Ortiz

67'▲F. Lareu←▼J. Viera

80'▲T. Hernández←▼B. Toro

80'▲A. Delorte←▼A. Hernández

87'▲M. Tormann←▼G. Bárez

87'▲T. Segovia←▼O. Bianchi

Sansinena substitutes

LareuHernándezDelorteTormannSegovia