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Cincinnati Dutch Lions vs South Bend Lions — USL League Two 2018

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
PST
19:00
South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
6/21/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 37Northern Kentucky University Stadium (Cincinnati, Kentucky)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions63%
×Draw18%
South Bend Lions19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
2.66
South Bend Lions
1.42

Cincinnati Dutch Lions creates 87% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
2.67
South Bend Lions
1.50

allows per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.33
South Bend Lions
2.64

finishing

Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par
South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cincinnati Dutch Lions ↓

South Bend Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Cincinnati Dutch Lions or draw
81%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions or South Bend Lions
82%
Draw or South Bend Lions
37%

Winning margin

Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
42%
South Bend Lions wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
93%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
74%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
49%
South Bend Lions 1+ goals
76%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
41%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
77%
South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 2.67 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.66

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
63%
level
18%
South Bend Lions scores more
19%

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Cincinnati Dutch Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cincinnati Dutch Lions vs South Bend Lions — Match Preview

Cincinnati Dutch Lions face South Bend Lions on June 21, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cincinnati Dutch Lions host South Bend Lions at Northern Kentucky University Stadium (Cincinnati, Kentucky).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.