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Cincinnati Dutch Lions vs Oakland County — USL League Two 2018

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
PST
19:00
Oakland County
Oakland County
5/16/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 4Northern Kentucky University Stadium (Cincinnati, Kentucky)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions56%
×Draw20%
Oakland County24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
2.30
Oakland County
1.48

Cincinnati Dutch Lions creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 40 away

creates per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
2.67
Oakland County
1.63

allows per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.33
Oakland County
1.93

finishing

Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par
Oakland County+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cincinnati Dutch Lions ↓

Oakland County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Cincinnati Dutch Lions or draw
76%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions or Oakland County
80%
Draw or Oakland County
44%

Winning margin

Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
34%
Oakland County wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
90%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
67%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
40%
Oakland County 1+ goals
77%
Oakland County 2+ goals
43%
Oakland County 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
70%
Oakland County (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Oakland County away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.93 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 2.67 + Oakland County defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.30

Oakland County attack 1.63 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
56%
level
20%
Oakland County scores more
24%

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cincinnati Dutch Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cincinnati Dutch Lions face Oakland County (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Cincinnati Dutch Lions hosting Oakland County. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cincinnati Dutch Lions host Oakland County at Northern Kentucky University Stadium (Cincinnati, Kentucky).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.