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Cincinnati Dutch Lions vs Louisville City II — USL League Two 2018

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
PST
23:00
Louisville City II
Louisville City II
7/10/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 52Northern Kentucky University Stadium (Cincinnati, Kentucky)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions54%
×Draw20%
Louisville City II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
2.33
Louisville City II
1.58

Cincinnati Dutch Lions creates 47% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
2.67
Louisville City II
1.83

allows per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.33
Louisville City II
2.00

finishing

Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par
Louisville City II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cincinnati Dutch Lions ↓

Louisville City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Cincinnati Dutch Lions or draw
74%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions or Louisville City II
80%
Draw or Louisville City II
46%

Winning margin

Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
33%
Louisville City II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
90%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
67%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
41%
Louisville City II 1+ goals
79%
Louisville City II 2+ goals
47%
Louisville City II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
68%
Louisville City II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Louisville City II away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 2.67 + Louisville City II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Louisville City II attack 1.83 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
54%
level
20%
Louisville City II scores more
26%

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cincinnati Dutch Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cincinnati Dutch Lions vs Louisville City II — Match Preview

Cincinnati Dutch Lions face Louisville City II on July 10, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cincinnati Dutch Lions host Louisville City II at Northern Kentucky University Stadium (Cincinnati, Kentucky).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.