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Cincinnati Dutch Lions vs Grand Rapids — USL League Two 2018

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
PST
23:00
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
6/19/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 34Northern Kentucky University Stadium (Cincinnati, Kentucky)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions36%
×Draw21%
Grand Rapids43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.90
Grand Rapids
2.09

Grand Rapids creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
2.67
Grand Rapids
2.86

allows per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.33
Grand Rapids
1.14

finishing

Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par
Grand Rapids+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cincinnati Dutch Lions ↓

Grand Rapids →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Cincinnati Dutch Lions or draw
57%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions or Grand Rapids
79%
Draw or Grand Rapids
64%

Winning margin

Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
19%
Grand Rapids wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
85%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
56%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
29%
Grand Rapids 1+ goals
88%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
62%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
45%
Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Grand Rapids away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 2.67 + Grand Rapids defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.90

Grand Rapids attack 2.86 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
36%
level
21%
Grand Rapids scores more
43%

Grand Rapids at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cincinnati Dutch Lions host Grand Rapids

June 19, 2020: Cincinnati Dutch Lions take on Grand Rapids in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cincinnati Dutch Lions host Grand Rapids at Northern Kentucky University Stadium (Cincinnati, Kentucky).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.