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Cincinnati Dutch Lions vs Ann Arbor — USL League Two 2018

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
PST
23:00
Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
6/12/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 27Northern Kentucky University Stadium (Cincinnati, Kentucky)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions48%
×Draw21%
Ann Arbor31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
2.15
Ann Arbor
1.71

Cincinnati Dutch Lions creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 26 away

creates per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
2.67
Ann Arbor
2.08

allows per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.33
Ann Arbor
1.62

finishing

Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par
Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cincinnati Dutch Lions ↓

Ann Arbor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Cincinnati Dutch Lions or draw
69%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions or Ann Arbor
79%
Draw or Ann Arbor
52%

Winning margin

Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
28%
Ann Arbor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
88%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
63%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
36%
Ann Arbor 1+ goals
82%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
51%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
61%
Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 2.67 + Ann Arbor defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.15

Ann Arbor attack 2.08 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
48%
level
21%
Ann Arbor scores more
31%

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cincinnati Dutch Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cincinnati Dutch Lions vs Ann Arbor — Match Preview

Cincinnati Dutch Lions face Ann Arbor on June 12, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cincinnati Dutch Lions host Ann Arbor at Northern Kentucky University Stadium (Cincinnati, Kentucky).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.