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Cibao vs Vega Real — Liga Mayor 2020

Cibao
Cibao
FT
4 – 0
Vega Real
Vega Real
8/22/2021Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Championship Round - 4Estadio Cibao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Cibao56%
×Draw24%
Vega Real19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cibao
1.65
Vega Real
0.85

Cibao creates 94% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 67 away

creates per match

Cibao
1.87
Vega Real
0.99

allows per match

Cibao
0.72
Vega Real
1.43

finishing

Cibao+0.00on par
Vega Real+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cibao ↓

Vega Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cibao or draw
81%
Cibao or Vega Real
76%
Draw or Vega Real
44%

Winning margin

Cibao wins by 2+
31%
Vega Real wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cibao 1+ goals
81%
Cibao 2+ goals
49%
Cibao 3+ goals
23%
Vega Real 1+ goals
57%
Vega Real 2+ goals
21%
Vega Real 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cibao (draw refunded)
74%
Vega Real (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cibao at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.72 · 85 matches

Vega Real away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cibao attack 1.87 + Vega Real defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vega Real attack 0.99 + Cibao defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cibao scores more
56%
level
24%
Vega Real scores more
19%

Cibao at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cibao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: Cibao 4–0 Vega Real

Cibao beat Vega Real 4-0 in Liga Mayor on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Cibao in Santiago De Los Caballeros.