Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cibao vs Delfines Del Este — Liga Mayor 2020

Cibao
Cibao
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Delfines Del Este
Delfines Del Este
3/8/2024Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 1Estadio Cibao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cibao52%
×Draw26%
Delfines Del Este22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cibao
1.53
Delfines Del Este
0.88

Cibao creates 74% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 62 away

creates per match

Cibao
1.87
Delfines Del Este
1.03

allows per match

Cibao
0.72
Delfines Del Este
1.19

finishing

Cibao+0.00on par
Delfines Del Este+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cibao ↓

Delfines Del Este →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cibao or draw
78%
Cibao or Delfines Del Este
74%
Draw or Delfines Del Este
48%

Winning margin

Cibao wins by 2+
27%
Delfines Del Este wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cibao 1+ goals
78%
Cibao 2+ goals
45%
Cibao 3+ goals
20%
Delfines Del Este 1+ goals
59%
Delfines Del Este 2+ goals
22%
Delfines Del Este 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cibao (draw refunded)
71%
Delfines Del Este (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cibao at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.72 · 85 matches

Delfines Del Este away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cibao attack 1.87 + Delfines Del Este defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.53

Delfines Del Este attack 1.03 + Cibao defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cibao scores more
52%
level
26%
Delfines Del Este scores more
22%

Cibao at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cibao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cibao vs Delfines Del Este

Cibao beat Delfines Del Este 3-2 in Liga Mayor on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Cibao in Santiago De Los Caballeros.