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Cianorte vs ASA — Serie D 2025

Cianorte
Cianorte
Preview
19:00
ASA
ASA
7/18/2026Serie DSerie D · Round of 16Estadio Olimpico Albino Turbay
Big match
39%
Cianorte
model favours
39%30%31%

ASA are unbeaten in 8 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cianorte39%
×Draw30%
ASA31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cianorte
1.13
ASA
0.97

Cianorte creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cianorte
1.68
ASA
1.16

allows per match

Cianorte
0.79
ASA
0.58

finishing

Cianorte+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cianorte or draw
69%
Cianorte or ASA
70%
Draw or ASA
61%

Winning margin

Cianorte wins by 2+
16%
ASA wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cianorte 1+ goals
68%
Cianorte 2+ goals
31%
Cianorte 3+ goals
11%
ASA 1+ goals
62%
ASA 2+ goals
25%
ASA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cianorte (draw refunded)
56%
ASA (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

ASA away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte attack 1.68 + ASA defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.13

ASA attack 1.16 + Cianorte defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cianorte scores more
39%
level
30%
ASA scores more
31%

Cianorte at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cianorte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • ASA have won 3 in a row
  • ASA score first in only 29% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 20% of Cianorte’s matches
  • Cianorte score first in only 30% of matches
  • ASA have scored in 8 games running
  • 70% of Cianorte’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cianorte
DWLWW
ASA
WWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cianorte face ASA (Serie D)

Serie D returns with Cianorte hosting ASA. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cianorte host ASA at Estadio Olimpico Albino Turbay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.