Churchill Brothers 1–0 NEROCA: Result & Stats

Churchill Brothers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NEROCA

2/24/2021

I-League · Round 10Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Churchill Brothers55%

×Draw22%

NEROCA23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Churchill BrothersExpected goals in this matchNEROCA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.15

Churchill Brothers

1.92

NEROCA

1.15

Churchill Brothers creates 67% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

1.72

creates per match

1.20

1.09

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Churchill Brothers

1.72

NEROCA

1.20

allows per match

Churchill Brothers

1.09

NEROCA

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Churchill Brothers+0.00on par

NEROCA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Churchill Brothers ↓

NEROCA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Churchill Brothers or draw

77%

Churchill Brothers or NEROCA

78%

Draw or NEROCA

45%

Winning margin

Churchill Brothers wins by 2+

32%

NEROCA wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Churchill Brothers 1+ goals

85%

Churchill Brothers 2+ goals

57%

Churchill Brothers 3+ goals

30%

NEROCA 1+ goals

68%

NEROCA 2+ goals

32%

NEROCA 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Churchill Brothers (draw refunded)

71%

NEROCA (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Churchill Brothers at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

NEROCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Churchill Brothers attack 1.72 + NEROCA defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.92

NEROCA attack 1.20 + Churchill Brothers defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Churchill Brothers scores more

55%

level

22%

NEROCA scores more

23%

Churchill Brothers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Churchill Brothers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff