Chrobry Głogów 0–0 Stomil Olsztyn: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stomil Olsztyn

8/24/2019

I Liga · Round 6Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Chrobry Głogów44%

×Draw28%

Stomil Olsztyn28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.97

Chrobry Głogów

1.30

Stomil Olsztyn

0.97

Chrobry Głogów creates 34% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 68 away

1.25

creates per match

0.88

1.06

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.25

Stomil Olsztyn

0.88

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.06

Stomil Olsztyn

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

72%

Chrobry Głogów or Stomil Olsztyn

72%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

56%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

20%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

73%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

37%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

14%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

62%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

25%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

61%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.25 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

44%

level

28%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

28%

Chrobry Głogów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff