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Chrobry Głogów vs Podbeskidzie — I Liga 2025

Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
Preview
15:00
Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
8/15/2026I LigaI Liga · Round 4Stadion Chrobrego
Big match
38%
Chrobry Głogów
model favours
38%26%37%

Podbeskidzie are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chrobry Głogów38%
×Draw26%
Podbeskidzie37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Podbeskidzie
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 5 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.37
Podbeskidzie
1.20

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.53
Podbeskidzie
1.40

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par
Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Podbeskidzie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw
63%
Chrobry Głogów or Podbeskidzie
74%
Draw or Podbeskidzie
62%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
17%
Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
75%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
40%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
16%
Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
74%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
39%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
51%
Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.37 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Podbeskidzie attack 1.20 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more
38%
level
26%
Podbeskidzie scores more
37%

Chrobry Głogów at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches
  • Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
  • 83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 60% over 2.5)
  • Podbeskidzie score first in only 30% of matches
  • Podbeskidzie have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Głogów
WLLWL
Podbeskidzie
WWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chrobry Głogów host Podbeskidzie

August 15, 2026: Chrobry Głogów take on Podbeskidzie in I Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chrobry Głogów host Podbeskidzie at Stadion Chrobrego.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.