Chrobry Głogów vs Odra Opole: Preview & Prediction

Chrobry Głogów

Preview

17:00

Odra Opole

8/3/2026

I Liga · Round 2Stadion Chrobrego

Big match

45%

Chrobry Głogów

model favours

45%27%28%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Chrobry Głogów45%

×Draw27%

Odra Opole28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchOdra Opole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.06

Chrobry Głogów

1.41

Odra Opole

1.06

Chrobry Głogów creates 33% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 22 away

1.46

creates per match

0.91

1.21

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.46

Odra Opole

0.91

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.21

Odra Opole

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Odra Opole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

72%

Chrobry Głogów or Odra Opole

73%

Draw or Odra Opole

55%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

22%

Odra Opole wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

76%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

41%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

17%

Odra Opole 1+ goals

65%

Odra Opole 2+ goals

29%

Odra Opole 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

61%

Odra Opole (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.46 + Odra Opole defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Odra Opole attack 0.91 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

45%

level

27%

Odra Opole scores more

28%

Chrobry Głogów at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Odra Opole win just 17% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Głogów

WLLWL

Opole

LDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff