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Chrobry Głogów vs Lechia Gdansk — I Liga 2025

Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
Preview
15:00
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
5/29/2027I LigaI Liga · Round 34Stadion Chrobrego
38%
Lechia Gdansk
model favours
34%27%38%

Lechia Gdansk score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chrobry Głogów34%
×Draw27%
Lechia Gdansk38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów
1.19
Lechia Gdansk
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 4 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.37
Lechia Gdansk
1.00

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.53
Lechia Gdansk
1.00

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw
62%
Chrobry Głogów or Lechia Gdansk
73%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
66%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
14%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
70%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
33%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
12%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
72%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
36%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
47%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.37 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.00 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more
34%
level
27%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
38%

Lechia Gdansk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches
  • Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
  • 83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 70% over 2.5)
  • 70% of Lechia Gdansk’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Głogów
WLLWL
Gdansk
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chrobry Głogów host Lechia Gdansk

May 29, 2027: Chrobry Głogów take on Lechia Gdansk in I Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chrobry Głogów host Lechia Gdansk at Stadion Chrobrego.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.